Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Santana's black magic contract

So the New York Mets signed Johan Santana to a seven-year, $150 million contract, and Santana became the highest-paid pitcher in history. And Santana's not even the reigning AL Cy Young winner.

What does this mean for the Indians? Obviously, it means the price just went up for C.C. Sabathia, who IS the reigning Cy Young. And this time next year, if he hasn't signed a contract in the meantime, he could be the two-time reigning Cy Young. Sabathia's not quite on Santana's level yet, but by this time next year, he may well be. But let's not forget that he absolutely tanked in the postseason in 2007. Does that mean he'll do that every year? Of course not. But it is cause for some concern.

Well, Tribe fans, it's time to face the fact that we're going to lose Carsten Charles. I'd love to keep him here, but if he's going to command something on the order of $20 million a year, AND if
it's going to be for somewhere around half-a-dozen years, you're looking at a commitment of at least $100 million to one player. The Indians simply can't afford that. They need to hold that money back to pay two or three lesser, but still very talented, players. I hated to see Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome go, but if the Indians had offered them the contracts they got in Boston and Philadelphia, they would never have had the money to sign Grady Sizemore, Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez to long-term contracts. And you're not going to tell me you wouldn't have those three players than Manny and Thome.

Assuming C.C. does go, we've got plenty of young pitching prospects ready to step up. No, Jeremy Sowers is probably never going to be another C.C. Sabathia. But what if he's another Jake Westbrook? What if Aaron Laffey turns out to be another Fausto Carmona? What if Cliff Lee becomes another ... well, Cliff Lee? What about prospects like Chuck Lofgren or Adam Miller or Matt Ginter? At least one of those guys will be at least a solid No. 3 or 4 major-league starter. It's hard to predict how pitching prospects will turn out, but the Indians have plenty of pitching talent to choose from.

What Mark Shapiro will undoubtedly do (which is what he SHOULD do) is let Sabathia play this season out, and if the Tribe should fall out of contention before the trading deadline, he'll send him to a contender for some prospects. If they stay in contention, he'll keep C.C. here until the end of the season. I'll be sorry to see him go, but not as sorry as I'd be if they busted the budget to keep him here.

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