Oh, yeah

It probably hasn't escaped anyone who cares enough about Cleveland sports to read this blog, but just in case it has ...

Tonight's World Series opener pits Cliff Lee of the Phillies against CC Sabathia of the Yankees. I've defended those trades, but still, that's just a little bit depressing.

Clifton and Carsten

If it's time to dip into the mailbag, that means it's time to hear from Jeff Brown:

Cliff Lee is 5-0 with the Phillies with a 0.68 ERA!

This is about as dominant as you can be. So much for the Phillies "settling" for Lee instead of getting Roy Halladay -- even Halladay would be hard-pressed to pitch THIS well, even when he's on a hot streak.

Similarly, C.C. Sabathia went 11-2 with the Brew Crew in 2008 with an ERA of 1.65, 7 complete games and 3 shutouts.

And that was after slowing down a bit toward the end of the season, after he won his first 9 starts.

Steve, this is truly remarkable, and for a change, this is not hyperbole on my part.

There's no exaggeration necessary with these numbers.

So now my question for you -- why did each of them have such a lousy record with the Tribe immediately prior to joining their new teams and absolutely dominating everyone in sight?

First, Lee was far from lousy for the Indians this year. He wasn't as good as he's been for the Phils, but he was pretty darned good. In fact, he was pitching his best ball of the season just before he was traded. True, he was only 7-9, but his ERA was 3.14, and he suffered from poor run support in Cleveland this year. Similarly, if I remember correctly, Sabathia was pitching pretty well just before he got traded last year, after a lousy start. Like Lee, he had a losing pre-trade record (6-8) but with a 3.83 ERA; and the latter number had come way down over the past month or so before he was dealt to Milwaukee. So both men would figure to pitch well after the trades too. Of course, neither could have been expected, based solely on their Indians performances, to dominate as they have/did.

I have a trio of theories. One, the American League is simply a stronger league than the National League, as evidenced by the junior circuit's dominance in interleague play (not to mention All-Star Games) the last few years; therefore, anyone who moves from AL to NL can expect his numbers to improve. Two, Sabathia and Lee both left situations in which they were pitching for nothing but their next contract (and I realize that's an oversimplification, but you see what I'm saying) to situations in which they were/are pitching for October, and presumably responded to the added incentive. Third, there will be some random fluctuation in any player's performance, and I think some of that is in play here.

Still, what Lee has done since that trade has been eye-popping. Few pitchers have a run like that at any time in their career. It must be fun to be Cliff Lee right now.

Addendum

Just in case anyone's wondering and hasn't found the answer on their own, yes, this is the first time in major-league history the same team has traded away the defending Cy Young award winner two years in a row. In fact, it's only the fourth time the reigning Cy has been traded away the next season. They are:

• Frank Viola, traded from the Twins to the Mets in 1989
• David Cone, traded from the Royals to the Blue Jays in spring training 1995, then traded again to the Yankees in midseason that year
• CC Sabathia, traded from the Indians to the Brewers in 2008
• Cliff Lee, traded from the Indians to the Phillies in 2009.

Remarkable.

In another bit of Lee-trade-related news, two players who have failed miserably at the big-league level this year will have another chance as a result of Lee and Francisco vacating the roster. Let's hope Fausto Carmona and Trevor Crowe can do a little bit better this time. They could hardly do much worse.

Trading away the reigning Cy ... again

In 2008, Cliff Lee had the greatest season by an Indians starter in my lifetime. In 2009, he's been somewhere in the neighborhood of nearly as good, which is a convoluted way to say he's having a fine season. The Indians held an option on him for 2010, when it might take 87 or 88 wins to take the Central Division. So I'm a little bit confused by yesterday's trade. I haven't checked, but I doubt any team has ever traded away the previous year's Cy Young award winner two years in a row. It's depressing. (I know it's only sports, and I mean the word "depressing" in a sports kind of way.)

It was surreal to see Lee and Ben Francisco, who is joining him in Philadelphia, sitting in the dugout during yesterday's loss to the Angels because the trade wasn't official yet. Lee and Francisco both knew they were going, but had to sit in their Indians uniforms and wait for the official word. But they both seemed to be handling it well. Why not? They're probably going to be in the playoffs this year. I don't care much about Francisco; he's a useful player, but outfielders like him practically grow on trees. But a left-hander like Lee doesn't come along very often. I know he was gone after 2010 either way, but ...

All right, let's try to stay objective as we look at what we got for him. We did get four of the Phillies' top 10 prospects, though neither of their top two (according to Baseball America). They are:

• Carlos Carrasco, a 22-year-old right-handed starter who went 6-9 with a 5.18 ERA for the Phillies' AAA team in Lehigh Valley. Those numbers aren't great, but he's still considered a top prospect. Rob Neyer on ESPN.com, whose opinion I greatly respect, says he could be the Indians' best starter as soon as next year.

• Jason Knapp, an 18-year-old fireballer who's struck out 149 batters in 116 1/3 innings as a pro, all at the single-A level or below. He's got a 98-mile-an-hour fastball. Tantalizing, but if a 22-year-old pitcher is a risk, an 18-year-old pitcher is a humongous risk, because there's a lot that can go wrong with a young arm.

• Lou Marson, a 23-year-old catcher who, according to some things I've read, could become Victor Martinez's replacement when Mark Shapiro trades Martinez today or tomorrow. The Indians are a catching-rich organization already, with Wyatt Toregas and Carlos Santana waiting in the wings, but Marson is apparently considered a better prospect than those guys. His .433 OBP was tops in all of AA ball last year, but he's not hitting nearly as well this year, and he has no power.

• Jason Donald, a 24-year-old shortstop who has hit well in the lower levels of the minors, but was hitting .236 with one home run in Lehigh Valley at the time of the trade. I've read that he's below-average defensively.

With the exception of Knapp, everybody the Indians got has regressed this season. Marson is the only one who's played at the major-league level, hitting .235 in 17 games with the Phillies this year, after going 2-for-4 with a home run in a single game as a September call-up in '08.

Sure, one or more of these guys might turn out to be great, but I just don't understand why this trade was made now. Seems to me Shapiro should have held onto Lee for another year, then dealt him if we're out of it again next year. I guess he doesn't plan to contend in 2010 either.

Domination!

Just when you thought it was time to forget about the Indians and spend the rest of your summer doing crossword puzzles and waiting for football, they go out to Seattle and slug the bejesus out of a pretty decent team in three straight, outscoring them a combined total of 31-6. Baseball's a funny game, isn't it? The Mariners entered the series at 51-44, thinking they were contenders for the AL West crown. The sweep at the hands of our Tribe knocks them back to 7 1/2 games behind the Angels, and four behind the second-place Rangers. And it probably means the M's will be sellers instead of buyers at the trade deadline. That's what the Indians did to them this past weekend. And the Tribe now finds itself back in fourth place, ahead of the slumping Royals.

Here are some fun little observations about the series that just ended:

• The two runs Cliff Lee gave up in the first inning of yesterday's 12-3 blowout were the only two runs surrendered by an Indians starter in the entire series. Lee held them scoreless over the next six innings to pick up his seventh win of the season. He is 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA over his last three starts, the previous two of which were complete games.

• Jeremy Sowers, fresh off a stint in Columbus, went seven shutout innings in Saturday's 10-3 whitewashing, his best start of the season. It's been well-chronicled here and many other places that he's been absolutely crushed his third time through the batting order, but not this time, Biff. The Mariners went 1-for-8 with a walk the first time through the order, 3-for-9 the second time through, and 0-for-8 with a walk the third time through. Sowers even retired leadoff hitter Ichiro Suzuki in Ichiro's fourth trip to the plate before heading for the showers. (And try saying "Sowers showers" five times fast.)

• Aaron Laffey shut out the M's for seven innings in Friday night's 9-0 laugher, giving up three hits and three walks while striking out seven. It was also Laffey's best outing of the year, though it was only his seventh start in the majors, as he's battled injury and spent time in the bullpen. If Laffey can stay healthy going forward, he figures to have a bright future. He's only 24.

• The three starters' combined ERA for the series was a sparkling 0.88. Contrast that with Mariners starters Ryan Rowland-Smith, Erik Bedard and Jason Vargas, who gave up 12 runs in 14 combined innings, for an ERA of 7.71.

• The bullpen ... Well, the relievers didn't have any tight leads to protect, and did well enough with the huge, gaping leads they were given. They combined to give up four runs in six innings in the series, which works out to a 6.00 ERA. Yeah, the bullpen still sticks out like a sore thumb. But at least it was better than Seattle's bullpen, not that that's saying much after this series. (The Indians scored 17 earned runs in 13 innings against the Mariners' relievers, for a series bullpen ERA of 11.77. I sure am glad the Indians' bullpen was better than that.)

• Indians pitchers kept the Mariners' hitters in the yard the entire series, which you just don't see much these days. On the flip side, the Tribe hit 11 home runs in the three games, capped off by the four they hit yesterday, including Jhonny Peralta's grand slam. The Indians also outhit the Mariners by a combined total of 39-20. They dominated this series by any measure you can come up with.

• The Indians have now won four straight, their longest winning streak since May, and their longest road winning streak of the season. The sophisticated computers at coolstandings.com recently gave them a 0.2% chance, or one in 500, to make the playoffs. They now say it's a 0.7% chance, or about one in 150. Still not great odds, but quite an improvement.

Our boys open a three-game set tonight against the first-place Angels. I'd be very surprised if they can keep this kind of streak going, but maybe they can stay hot and finish this road trip strong.

Victor, Cliff on the block?

It's no secret to anyone that the Indians aren't going anywhere this year. Just for the heck of it, I checked coolstandings.com this morning, and they predict a final record of 67-95 and give the Tribe a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs. So that's a one-in-500 shot. Ain't gonna happen.*

So the rumor reported last night on ESPN's Baseball Tonight is that Mark Shapiro is shopping Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez. Both are have club options for 2010. In Lee's case, it's a $9 million option, and in Victor's case, it's a $7 million option. Presuming both are still here and still healthy, there's no doubt the Tribe will pick up those options. The big question is whether Shapiro can sign them past 2010, and the correlary to that question is whether he should.

If Lee is still here in 2010 and has another year like this year (never mind last year), he'll make somewhere around $15 million on the open market. That's not in the Indians' budget for one player. If they did spend that kind of money on him, it would put a serious crimp in their ability to sign other players. I don't see him giving us a hometown discount. So if Shapiro doesn't think we can contend in '10, he should trade him. No, you're not going to get another Cy Young-caliber pitcher for him, but maybe you'll get two or three players with All-Star potential. Of course, if Shapiro hangs on to Lee for another year, and the Indians don't contend next year, he could always trade him then. The return might not be as good, but contending teams are usually willing to pay premium prices for premium talent, even if the player isn't signed past the current year.

Victor's in a different situation. He's a 30-year-old catcher who has begun the transition to first base. It's clear that Kelly Shoppach can't hit enough to be a regular catcher, but the Indians do have some top catching prospects in the high minors (Wyatt Toregas, Carlos Santana). A trade of Martinez will immediately open the door for one of those guys. But regardless, Victor's never going to be able to catch 100 games in a season again. His body will break down. Even if he does stay in Cleveland, he'll probably become a full-time first baseman/designated hitter before long. But Victor is probably more signable for the Indians than Lee is. For one thing, he'll be cheaper, because of the aforementioned, and because he's never accomplished anything as amazing as a Cy Young. For another thing, Victor genuinely seems to want to stay in Cleveland.

My thoughts? I hope Shapiro doesn't trade either one of those guys, and tries to make a serious run at it in 2010. The pieces are pretty much in place; he just needs guys to stay healthy, and he needs to revamp the bullpen. And if things don't go well next year, then trade those guys.

* There are five teams with less chance than the Indians, and the Nationals are the only team at 0.0%. They're expected to finish about 53-109. Now that is a bad team. They also have the distinction of being the only team this year (so far as I know) to send their players out onto the field with the team's name misspelled on the front of their jerseys, as a result of which SportsCenter anchor Neil Everett calls them the "Natinals" every time he talks about them. What a pathetic organization that is. At least we're not them.

Domination!

I'm sure anyone interested enough in Cleveland sports to be reading this blog is aware of what Cliff Lee did last night. But just to recap, he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning and wound up with a three-hit shutout of the Cardinals. My question is, who jinxed him by saying "no-hitter" in the eighth? Because clearly, we fans have that kind of power over the events on the field.

Seriously, the reigning AL Cy Young is having another fine season, even if he doesn't have a big pile of wins to show for it. He's now 4-6 with a 2.88 ERA, good for seventh in the league. He is second in the league in innings pitched — no small matter when you're dealing with this Indians bullpen — and 11th in strikeouts. He's walked just 20 in his 97 innings, and given up just five home runs. So he's doing quite well in the defense-independent pitching stats.

Cliff Lee, Cy Young

To the surprise of no one, our man Cliff Lee took home some serious hardware today. Lee went 22-3 this year with a 2.45 ERA, and there is no question he was the best pitcher in the American League.

There really isn't much I can say in a small space about Lee's 2008. We all know how he struggled in '07, getting sent to Buffalo, then returning in a bullpen role. And we all know how he dominated this year, from start to finish.

A couple of months ago, I wrote in this space that I looked forward to posting a game-by-game account of Lee's season after he won the Cy Young. I do look forward to that, but it's not going to happen tonight. That's well within my rights as a blogger.

Clifton Phifer Lee

ESPN's Rob Neyer, one of my favorite baseball writers of all (and yes, I'm the sort of person who has a handful of favorite baseball writers), wrote a column the other day opining that ... well, I'll let HIM say it, after I set it up for him. Since it requires an ESPN Insider membership to read the whole thing, I'll give you the gist of it.

Neyer's column is titled "What's weird in April?" beginning with the fact that the Braves are in fourth place despite having the best run differential in their division. That's mostly explained by their 0-9 record in one-run games, which indicates bad luck more than anything. But I don't really care about the Braves or the National League East.

Then he moves on to what he calls "individually, the weirdest story of April," our Cliff Lee. Neyer points links to a column by Rany Jazayerli of Baseball Prospectus (posted April 26, so it's a week old, but still), which contains the following passage:

In 31.2 innings, he has allowed 11 hits, walked 2, struck out 29, and has a 0.28 ERA. I’d venture to say that half the pitchers in the majors today would struggle to put up those numbers if they got four starts in the Midwest League.

Just focus on his last three starts. On three consecutive occasions Lee has pitched 8 innings or more, allowed no more than 3 hits, walked no more than one batter, and struck out at least 8 batters.

We have game logs going back to 1956, courtesy of Retrosheet and Baseball-Reference.com. Since 1956, do you know how many pitchers had made three straight starts with 8+ innings, <=3 hits, <=1 walk, and 8+ strikeouts? Here's the list, which I have put in alphabetical order for your convenience:

Cliff Lee.

Here's that list again, sorted by last name:

Lee, Cliff.

That's it. Lee's stretch of pitching is unmatched in at least 50 years, and quite possibly ever, when you consider that strikeouts tend to decrease in frequency as you go back in time.

Yes, it's impressive. Since then, in his last start, Wednesday night, Lee gave up three runs, all on the last pitch he threw in the game, and his ERA ballooned to 0.96. Before that swing, he was at 0.24. Lee's obviously not quite this good -- no pitcher is -- but it's fantastic to see him get off to this kind of start, especially when you consider how bad he was last year.

Anyway, Neyer believes (and rightly so, I'd say) that Lee is fundamentally a much better pitcher than he showed last year, and a much lesser pitcher than he's shown thus far in '08. Were the Cy Young given out in early May, he'd have it locked up -- but, of course, there are five months left to go in the season, and Lee will struggle from time to time. Every pitcher does. Baseball simply isn't this easy.

Neyer also notes, quoting another blogger, that Lee's batting average on balls in play (kind of an egghead statistic, but it does serve as a fairly reliable predictor of future success) is .153. He's not going to be able to keep that up, because no defense is that good.

Neyer's conclusion, which is what I was setting up in my first paragraph:

So is Cliff Lee for real? I think all we can say is that he's really healthy. He's going to give up a higher batting average on balls in play, and some reasonable percentage of the fly balls he gives up will fly over the fence. So no, he probably doesn't wind up winning the Cy Young Award. But I'll bet he's better than average. And considering how well C.C. Sabathia's pitched in his last two starts, suddenly the Indians would seem to have the best rotation in the majors.

Sabathia struggled a bit last night against the Royals, and took the loss, but still, he appears to have largely turned it around. And while the Indians are off to a bit of a disappointing start as a team, at 14-16, they're still only a game and a half out of first place. I feel pretty optimistic.

Now that's what I call pitching!

Cliff Lee, the former future superstar, is looking like a superstar again. In yesterday's 7-1 win against Oakland, Lee went eight innings, striking out eight and giving up just two hits. They both happened to be in the same inning (the fourth), or else Lee would likely have thrown a goose egg up on the scoreboard. I would have liked to see him try to finish, but I'm not second-guessing Eric Wedge. We won, and that's what's important. But that performance from Cliff Lee was sure good to see. And judging by the photo at left, Lee was happy to see it too. Doesn't he look like he's smiling?

And it was sorely needed. The Indians had lost three in a row, during which time none of our starters (Paul Byrd, C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona) got past 3 1/3 innings. Any guesses when's the last time three consecutive Tribe starters didn't get more than 10 outs? I'll tell you -- it was in September 1987. (For those who are curious, the three pitchers that time were Tom Candiotti, "I'm Not" Rich Yett and Ken Schrom.)

Tribe eats option

The Aaron Fultz era in Cleveland is over, as the Indians have decided they will pay the veteran left-handed reliever $1.5 million to sit at home. Mark Shapiro chose to pick up Fultz's option going into the season, but after his awful spring, Shapiro decided to cut his losses. Fultz, 34, gave up 14 runs, 11 earned, on 16 hits with three walks and seven strikeouts in 8 1/3 innings. That works out to an 11.88 ERA. Translation: Dreadful. Fultz has not been the same since he strained a rib-cage muscle in the middle of the season last year. And let's face it, in today's baseball economics, $1.5 million is not a lot of money (though I sure wish someone would pay ME that much to sit on my posterior). The Indians will probably try to trade him for some young not-quite-prospect.

To take his place, the Indians took a molecular physicist off waivers. That's only slightly untrue -- former Red Sox prospect Craig Breslow has never actually worked as a nuclear physicist, but he does have a degree from Yale in molecular physics and biochemistry. Breslow first reached the majors in 2005 with the Padres, and then spent the last two last years with the Boston organization. He has pitched 28 1/3 innings in 27 major-league games, with a fine 2.86 ERA. But he spent all of last year in AAA, compiling a 4.06 ERA in 68 2/3 innings over 49 games. He's had control problems in his limited major-league action, but in the minors, he's walked about a third as many guys as he's struck out. Such times are these when a filthy rich team like the Red Sox can't find a place for him on their big-league roster. Along with Rafael Perez, that gives us two lefties in the pen.

Shapiro's thoughts on Breslow, courtesy of MLB.com:

"A year ago at this time, we probably never could have gotten him," Shapiro said. "He had a solid year last year, but not quite as good. He has a very successful track record against left-handed hitters in the minors. He's a resilient, smart guy."

The Tribe still has one bullpen spot to reconcile, and it's between Tom Mastny, Jorge Julio and Scott Elarton. They did officially name Cliff Lee the fifth starter today, to no one's surprise, and sent down Aaron Laffey and Jeremy Sowers. It wasn't a great day to be an Indians pitcher named Aaron. But if those guys do well in Buffalo, they'll get their chance.

Cliff Lee cements his spot

As Terry Pluto writes, Cliff Lee pitched awfully well yesterday against the Mets, and will probably be the fifth starter when the season opens in eight days.

Lee went five scoreless innings, striking out five, walking one and giving up four hits -- none of them hit all that hard. Frankly, he looked like the guy who won 46 games from 2004 to 2006, and not the guy who went 5-8 with a 6-plus ERA in 2007. And, as Les Levine points out, the Indians can made a change if Lee doesn't do well. Lee says his sore ribs were the problem last year, and considering how successful he was before that, I believe him.

Speaking of Indians who had off-years in 2007, ESPN's Amy Nelson has written a feature on Travis Hafner and how he's hoping for a nice bounce-back year. Hafner's '07 was a lot better than Lee's, but still, he wasn't the hitter we'd gotten used to.

Cliff Lee gets hammered

Taken from the Associated Press story about the Indians' 6-4 loss to Charlie Manuel's Phillies yesterday:

Despite giving up 11 hits and six runs in four innings, Cleveland pitcher Cliff Lee was content with his performance.

"As far as locating pitches and throwing my off-speed stuff, I felt good," Lee said. "I threw a couple pitches that hit a little too much of the plate for the counts that I was in and they got hits. For the most part, a lot of the hits they got, I threw the pitch right where I wanted to."

As Lee, the former future superstar, battles Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey for the fifth spot in the rotation, you'd think Lee would be less satisfied with this kind of performance. But Sowers and Laffey are both struggling too, even worse than Lee. As Gerry Fraley of The Sporting News notes, Lee's spring ERA is a hideous 8.30, but it's still three runs better than Sowers or Laffey, who are both at 11.25.

C.C. Sabathia has his spot in the rotation nailed down, obviously. But he made some headlines the other day, simply because of questions he was asked by the New York media. He's a free agent after this season, and some idiot writers asked him if he might like to play for the Yankees next year. C.C. was too smart to fall into that trap, which is yet another reason to love C.C.

I understand speculation about what free agents are going to sign where next season, but do we have to be talking about it before this one has even started? And does anyone really think that a superstar who's on a contending team is going to say something stupid like "Yes, I'm looking forward to changing teams next year"?

We all know the Yankees are going to make C.C. an offer next year, and that offer will be worth a lot of money. But we really don't need to be reminded of it now.