Victor, Cliff on the block?

It's no secret to anyone that the Indians aren't going anywhere this year. Just for the heck of it, I checked coolstandings.com this morning, and they predict a final record of 67-95 and give the Tribe a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs. So that's a one-in-500 shot. Ain't gonna happen.*

So the rumor reported last night on ESPN's Baseball Tonight is that Mark Shapiro is shopping Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez. Both are have club options for 2010. In Lee's case, it's a $9 million option, and in Victor's case, it's a $7 million option. Presuming both are still here and still healthy, there's no doubt the Tribe will pick up those options. The big question is whether Shapiro can sign them past 2010, and the correlary to that question is whether he should.

If Lee is still here in 2010 and has another year like this year (never mind last year), he'll make somewhere around $15 million on the open market. That's not in the Indians' budget for one player. If they did spend that kind of money on him, it would put a serious crimp in their ability to sign other players. I don't see him giving us a hometown discount. So if Shapiro doesn't think we can contend in '10, he should trade him. No, you're not going to get another Cy Young-caliber pitcher for him, but maybe you'll get two or three players with All-Star potential. Of course, if Shapiro hangs on to Lee for another year, and the Indians don't contend next year, he could always trade him then. The return might not be as good, but contending teams are usually willing to pay premium prices for premium talent, even if the player isn't signed past the current year.

Victor's in a different situation. He's a 30-year-old catcher who has begun the transition to first base. It's clear that Kelly Shoppach can't hit enough to be a regular catcher, but the Indians do have some top catching prospects in the high minors (Wyatt Toregas, Carlos Santana). A trade of Martinez will immediately open the door for one of those guys. But regardless, Victor's never going to be able to catch 100 games in a season again. His body will break down. Even if he does stay in Cleveland, he'll probably become a full-time first baseman/designated hitter before long. But Victor is probably more signable for the Indians than Lee is. For one thing, he'll be cheaper, because of the aforementioned, and because he's never accomplished anything as amazing as a Cy Young. For another thing, Victor genuinely seems to want to stay in Cleveland.

My thoughts? I hope Shapiro doesn't trade either one of those guys, and tries to make a serious run at it in 2010. The pieces are pretty much in place; he just needs guys to stay healthy, and he needs to revamp the bullpen. And if things don't go well next year, then trade those guys.

* There are five teams with less chance than the Indians, and the Nationals are the only team at 0.0%. They're expected to finish about 53-109. Now that is a bad team. They also have the distinction of being the only team this year (so far as I know) to send their players out onto the field with the team's name misspelled on the front of their jerseys, as a result of which SportsCenter anchor Neil Everett calls them the "Natinals" every time he talks about them. What a pathetic organization that is. At least we're not them.