Pavano good, Wood bad

Carl Pavano got off to a rough start last night against the Tigers, but he turned it around with the help of three double plays turned by his defense, one of which was a rare 2-4-5-2 strike-'em-out-throw-'em-out job, and gave up two runs in his eight innings of work. Pavano threw 101 pitches, and he struck out seven and didn't walk anybody, while keeping the ball in the yard, and that's a recipe for success. Pavano left with a 5-2 lead, which should be enough for a major-league closer to handle.

But Kerry Wood came in and walked the leadoff man, Placido Polanco, then gave up a two-run homer to Miguel Cabrera to make it a one-run game. He got the next three guys on two fly balls and one ground ball, but man, you hate for your closer to come in and walk the leadoff man with the heart of the order coming up. Wood did record his 12th save of the season, but he threw just seven strikes in 14 pitches, and his ERA now stands at 5.28, which is just plain too high for a closer.

But I don't want to be too negative. Asdrubal Cabrera went 3-for-5 to get his average back up over .300, and fellow former DL denizens Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner each had two hits. Hafner is actually having a pretty decent season (while he's playing, that is), with a .288 average and nine home runs in just 132 at-bats. He's got a .946 OPS, which would be good enough for seventh in the American League if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. If he can stay healthy, maybe he can put together an All-Star-caliber season next year, when he'll turn 32.

Tomo Ohka starts today against Justin Verlander in the last game of the first half. It's been a very, very disappointing first half, obviously, but maybe we can end it on a positive note.

Hafner goes under the scope

So it seems the Indians "cleanup" hitter, Travis Hafner, underwent arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder yesterday. The procedure by Dr. James Andrews is described as a "debridement," or cleaning out, of his right shoulder joint. I'm sure I don't have to tell any of you that Hafner spent most of 2008 on the disabled list, and didn't do much when he did play (.197/5/24 in 198 at-bats). He was an absolute monster in 2006 (.308/42/117), but fell off precipitously in 2007 (.266/24/100).

The Indians say Hafner will be ready for opening day in 2009, but he will turn 32 on June 3 next year and will be coming off an injury-plagued year that was followed by arthroscopic shoulder surgery. Given that most hitters peak around age 27, I don't think Hafner will ever have another season like he had in 2006, when he was 29. In fact, I'll be surprised if Hafner's production in 2009 is as good as it was in 2007. I hope I'm wrong.

Pronk!

It sure was good to see Travis Hafner hit what turned out to be a game-winning two-run homer in the top of the ninth last night. Not just because it won the game, but because Pronk had an off-year (for him) in 2007. But we know all that.

Not to be a wet blanket, but this doesn't necessarily mean he's turned the corner. We're only eight games into the season, but Hafner's hitting .267 so far -- one point better than his average in '07. Last night's dinger was his second of the season, in 30 at-bats, or one per 15 ABs. That's an improvement over last year, when he hit one per 22.7 at-bats, and it's actually better than his career average of one per 16 at-bats. But 30 at-bats is practically nothing, and I'm perhaps doing him and you a disservice by drawing any conclusions from 30 at-bats. I'm just observing what there is to observe.

Jake Westbrook made his second solid start of the season, which was also good to see. He had a better year last year than his 6-9 record would indicate, but it was still something of an off-year for him. If the Indians can win the AL Central and nearly go to the World Series with Westbrook and Hafner having off-years, imagine what they can do if those guys have a good year.

One other note: The notoriously slow-footed Hafner got thrown out by a mile at home in the first inning, trying to score from second on a base-hit to right by Victor Martinez. Play-by-play announcer Matt Underwood originally thought Pronk ran through Joel Skinner's stop sign, but it turned out Skinner did send him, he just didn't use his usual windmill motion to do so. Most people would say that was stupid, challenging Vladimir Guerrero's famous gun with a lumbering DH like Pronk. And it's easy to say that because he was thrown out. But I liked it. There were two outs, Guerrero's arm isn't always accurate, and if he'd stayed at third, it's relatively unlikely that he would have made it across the plate.

I recently read this post by someone identified as "Pizza Cutter" about how third-base coaches are generally too conservative, and I will excerpt a little bit:

In 1993, there were 329 times when a runner was held at third on a fly ball. (I only had hit location data on 251 of them). So league-wide, third base coaches cost their teams about 120 runs on would-have-been sac flies by being too conservative. Over 28 teams (in 1993), that’s a little more than 4 runs per season. And that’s just one of the calls that a third base coach has to make.

Of course, 1993 was a long time ago, but I don't think third-base coaches have gotten a whole lot more daring since then. And it's easy to understand why. If a guy gets thrown out at the plate when he could have stayed at third, the base coach takes the heat. If he gets stuck at third when a teammate can't get a hit to bring him in, nobody remembers the decision not to send him on the previous play -- they just remember the hitter's failure to get the RBI.

So I say, attaboy, Skins. It didn't work out this time, but it might next time.

Cliff Lee cements his spot

As Terry Pluto writes, Cliff Lee pitched awfully well yesterday against the Mets, and will probably be the fifth starter when the season opens in eight days.

Lee went five scoreless innings, striking out five, walking one and giving up four hits -- none of them hit all that hard. Frankly, he looked like the guy who won 46 games from 2004 to 2006, and not the guy who went 5-8 with a 6-plus ERA in 2007. And, as Les Levine points out, the Indians can made a change if Lee doesn't do well. Lee says his sore ribs were the problem last year, and considering how successful he was before that, I believe him.

Speaking of Indians who had off-years in 2007, ESPN's Amy Nelson has written a feature on Travis Hafner and how he's hoping for a nice bounce-back year. Hafner's '07 was a lot better than Lee's, but still, he wasn't the hitter we'd gotten used to.