Thursday, August 27, 2009

Clifton and Carsten

If it's time to dip into the mailbag, that means it's time to hear from Jeff Brown:


Cliff Lee is 5-0 with the Phillies with a 0.68 ERA!

This is about as dominant as you can be. So much for the Phillies "settling" for Lee instead of getting Roy Halladay -- even Halladay would be hard-pressed to pitch THIS well, even when he's on a hot streak.

Similarly, C.C. Sabathia went 11-2 with the Brew Crew in 2008 with an ERA of 1.65, 7 complete games and 3 shutouts.

And that was after slowing down a bit toward the end of the season, after he won his first 9 starts.

Steve, this is truly remarkable, and for a change, this is not hyperbole on my part.

There's no exaggeration necessary with these numbers.

So now my question for you -- why did each of them have such a lousy record with the Tribe immediately prior to joining their new teams and absolutely dominating everyone in sight?
First, Lee was far from lousy for the Indians this year. He wasn't as good as he's been for the Phils, but he was pretty darned good. In fact, he was pitching his best ball of the season just before he was traded. True, he was only 7-9, but his ERA was 3.14, and he suffered from poor run support in Cleveland this year. Similarly, if I remember correctly, Sabathia was pitching pretty well just before he got traded last year, after a lousy start. Like Lee, he had a losing pre-trade record (6-8) but with a 3.83 ERA; and the latter number had come way down over the past month or so before he was dealt to Milwaukee. So both men would figure to pitch well after the trades too. Of course, neither could have been expected, based solely on their Indians performances, to dominate as they have/did.

I have a trio of theories. One, the American League is simply a stronger league than the National League, as evidenced by the junior circuit's dominance in interleague play (not to mention All-Star Games) the last few years; therefore, anyone who moves from AL to NL can expect his numbers to improve. Two, Sabathia and Lee both left situations in which they were pitching for nothing but their next contract (and I realize that's an oversimplification, but you see what I'm saying) to situations in which they were/are pitching for October, and presumably responded to the added incentive. Third, there will be some random fluctuation in any player's performance, and I think some of that is in play here.

Still, what Lee has done since that trade has been eye-popping. Few pitchers have a run like that at any time in their career. It must be fun to be Cliff Lee right now.

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