Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Congratulations, Junior

Last night, Ken Griffey Jr. became the sixth player in major league history to hit 600 career home runs. Congratulations to him; it's no small accomplishment, even though Griffey came along in the biggest home-run-hitting era in baseball history.

But I think it's likely that we've been underestimating Junior's career for a long time. Because he's only the third player of his era to get to 600 -- which doubles the size of the 600 club -- the number seems to have lost a bit of its luster. But look at the top five guys who have played the bulk of their careers in the last 20 years or so. The list includes Barry Bonds (762), Sammy Sosa (609), Griffey (600 and counting), Mark McGwire (583) and Rafael Palmeiro (569). What do all those guys have in common, but for Kenny-boy? That's right: They're all at least strongly suspected of steroid use. Palmeiro was actually caught at it, and if anyone thinks Bonds, McGwire or Sosa innocent of juicing, they're fooling themselves. Especially Bonds.

Obviously, we don't know for sure that Griffey hasn't shot up either, but we have very little evidence that would support such a theory. Unlike the Testosterone Bunch, Griffey's career has followed the same type of progression that players have followed for decades. He first came up in his early 20s, took a while to find his power, but hit 45 home runs at 23, on his way to peaking in his late 20s (with back-to-back 56-HR seasons at 27 and 28). After hitting 48 at age 29, he left Seattle for Cincinnati (probably my two favorite cities outside of Cleveland, by the way), and immediately started to struggle with injuries. He's retained pretty good power when he's been healthy, but he's only topped 140 games twice: in 2000, at age 30, when he hit 40 HRs; and in 2007, at age 37, when he hit 35. But he'll never threaten 50 again, unlike certain other aging hitters I could name.

So if Griffey is clean, that makes him probably the fourth guy to get to 600 legitimately. So I say, let's celebrate his accomplishment in those terms.

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