What to make of Tribe's hot start?

OK, so the Indians aren't going to go 160-2 or 159-3. Dan Haren blanked them on one hit Tuesday night, and the Angels managed a victory in the rubber match of the series last night on a sacrifice fly in the bottom of the 12th that would not have scored the run if it had been hit about 10 feet shallower.

Still, the Indians are off to a pretty darn good start. The obvious question is, is this really how good this team is? Or are they just on a hot streak? I received this email from Jeff Brown three days ago, when the Tribe was 7-2:

As I have reported previously, the Tribe has had many fast starts over the past 25 seasons which have been a "flash in the pan" -- they ended up being a big loser by the end of the season.

That's what's happening again this season -- an impressive 7-2 start will, before, long, fade into the woodwork and they will become big losers once again.

Mark my words, Steve -- the 2011 Tribe will finish 15-20 games under .500!

Well, I don't know about all that. Do I think these Indians are a playoff team? Probably not. But if you think they were fundamentally a 15-under-.500 team at the start of the season, then you must revise your expectations based solely on the fact that they're four games over .500 right now.

This morning, I had this from Jeff:

Once again, as in the past, the Tribe zoomed out to a fast start at 8-2, however their precipitous decline has already begun.

They've lost two in a row to fall to 8-4, and just watch, Steve -- they are on a race to the bottom, and it's only a matter of time until they are in last place again.

They stink Steve, and no smoke and mirrors are going to cover up that fact over 162 games.

I anticipate they'll be in last place in their division no later than May 29, and as I have stated, they'll finish the year 15-20 games under .500.

Are you with me on this one?

Well, no. Jeez, talk about reading too much into two games. We're talking about two losses by a total of three runs. And to predict they'll finish last is to predict not only that they'll finish behind the Twins and White Sox (which is pretty likely), and the Tigers (which is about 50-50), but the Royals. Come on, Jeff! You think the Kansas City Royals are going to finish ahead of us this year? Have you looked at their "talent"?

In any case, to fully examine whether the Indians are for real, you have to take a look at the reasons for their hot start. The starting rotation has been really, really good. Fausto Carmona laid an egg on Opening Day, but he's gotten his ERA down from over 10 to 6.11 since then, with two strong outings. He's the only starter without a win now. Carlos Carrasco has been serviceable, and the other three starters -- Justin Masterson, Mitch Talbot and Josh Tomlin -- all have ERAs under 3, after two starts each. Can they keep this up? ... Well, probably not. These are all young pitchers who have not tasted this type of success in the bigs before, and they will get banged around from time to time. But I don't think it's unrealistic to expect any or all of them to finish with ERAs around 4, and 12-15 wins. Fausto has been a 19-game winner before, and could do it again. I would expect that Carrasco will finish with an ERA around 5 (it's currently 5.03). If all that happens, this will be one of the AL's better rotations.

They're helped by a solid defense behind them, strengthened by the off-season additions of Orlando Cabrera and Jack Hannahan. Asdrubal Cabrera -- who unexpectedly leads the team with four home runs and 10 RBIs -- is a solid glove man at short too. And this team is going to have to win with pitching and defense, because they're not going to keep up the offensive numbers they've posted. Asdrubal is no power hitter. I've heard talk about how he's changed his approach at the plate, and bravo for him, but he's currently on pace to hit 54 home runs. You're not going to convince me that the guy who hit three dingers all last season is suddenly a primo power guy unless he proves it to me. And I don't see that happening.

Anyway, the Tribe's fast start is encouraging. When the season started, I felt I'd have been happy with about a 76-86 record. I felt that was a realistic goal. Now? I think .500 is a possibility. It's going to require people to stay healthy and play well all year, but it could happen. Sorry, Jeff. I think you're wrong.