Tie helps a little, but we needed a win

Because most sporting events are at night and I go to bed early, it's fairly rare that I get a chance to blog about a sporting event that just happened. The U.S.-Slovenia match ended a little over an hour ago, but I still think that counts. Of course, I didn't actually watch it, because I have a job, but still, I am capable of laying out the potential advancement scenarios for you.

First, the match itself. Slovenia took a 2-0 lead into halftime, but a goal by Landon Donovan in the 48th minute (shortly after the second half started, for the uninitiated among us) cut the lead in half, and a goal by Michael Bradley tied it in the 82nd minute (perilously close to the end of the game).

By the sound of it, the Americans definitely outplayed the Slovenians, but were victimized by a questionable call by the obviously anti-American referees. (All right, I don't know if they were anti-American, but it seems plausible.) Maurice Edu appeared to score a goal that would have given us the lead in the 86th minute, but the Malian official disallowed it, apparently for a foul before Edu got the ball. And there were two other near-goals in the first half that the Slovenian goalkeeper managed to stop. U.S. goalie Tim Howard, playing with sore ribs, was not able to stop either of Slovenia's shots on goal in the first half.

For those of you who don't follow soccer or understand how this works, we're in a group with Slovenia, England and Algeria. The top two teams in the group advance to the next round. A win gets you three points, and a tie gets you one. Slovenia, at 1-0-1, leads with four points. The USA, at 0-0-2, is second with two points. England plays Algeria this afternoon, but currently has one point by virtue of tying the Americans on Saturday. Algeria has no points, because they lost to Slovenia in their only game so far. The U.S. team no longer controls its own destiny; we could beat Algeria and still not move on. Allow me to explain.

If, as expected, England defeats Algeria in this afternoon's game, which starts at 2:30 Eastern, that will tie England with Slovenia at 1-0-1. The Brits and Slovenes have a date with each other next week. So here are the scenarios, assuming the British beat the Algerians:
• If England and Slovenia tie and the U.S. beats Algeria, that will create a three-way tie between England, Slovenia, and the United States, at 1-0-2. The tiebreakers are top goal differential, followed by total goals, then total points in matches between the three teams concerned, then goal differential in those matches, then total goals scored in those matches. If the tie is unresolved after all of those questions are answered, FIFA will draw lots.
• If England beats Slovenia OR Slovenia beats England and the U.S. beats Algeria, we're into the next round, because we'll have five points and the loser of the Slovenia-England game will have four.
• If the U.S. ties or loses to Algeria, we're out, no matter what happens between Slovenia and England.

Now then, if England and Algeria should happen to tie, that would mean we'd be tied with England in the standings at 0-0-2. Under that scenario:
• If the U.S. beats Algeria, we're in, no matter what happens between Slovenia and England.
• If the U.S. ties Algeria and England beats Slovenia, we're out.
• If the U.S. ties Algeria and Slovenia beats England, we're in.
• If the U.S. ties Algeria and Slovenia ties England, it goes to a two-team tiebreaker between us and England.
• If Algeria beats the U.S., we're out.

And if Algeria should happen to defeat England, which is unlikely but nonetheless possible, that would put Algeria into second place, with the three points from that victory. Under that scenario:
• If the U.S. beats Algeria, we're in.
• If the U.S. ties Algeria and Slovenia beats England, we're out.
• If the U.S. ties Algeria and England beats Slovenia, we're out.
• If the U.S. ties Algeria and England ties Slovenia, we're into a two-team tiebreaker with Algeria.
• If the U.S. loses to Algeria, we're out.

Got all that? Good. There will be a test on it later. Bottom line? Go Algeria! Beat England! Or at least tie them! But don't get too much confidence!