George Mason, part two? Not really

We'll start today's post with a response to a previous post, regarding Butler's upset of Syracuse, from Of Fair Hooker's most frequent responder, Jeff Brown:

Mullett, as I'm sure you've heard by now, the Butler Bulldogs won their regional final game as well and are hosting the Final Four next weekend.

This team is a very, very good team.

They're much better, in my view, than George Mason, the other mid-major that went to the Final Four in 2006.

They actually have a chance to win the national title, whereas George Mason had zero chance.

I'm not saying that they will win the title, but I would not be the least bit surprised, not after seeing 3 of their first 4 tourney games thus far.

Of course, the Bulldogs are not technically hosting the Final Four, but Jeff is right in that it will be right in their back yard. Butler plays its home games at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, but the Final Four will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium, the year-and-a-half-old home of the Colts. The two arenas are six miles apart. So yes, it will basically be a home game (or two).

Let's take a look at that George Mason team from 2006. The Patriots entered the NCAA Tournament at 25-7, playing in the Colonial Athletic Association, and were an 11-seed. They had failed to win their conference tournament, but received one of the last few at-large bids to that year's Madness. Give them credit for their Tourney run — they beat 6-seed Michigan State, then 3-seed North Carolina, then 7-seed Wichita State before improbably knocking off top-seed Connecticut in a thrilling overtime regional final. Most observers agreed that Connecticut would beat George Mason at least nine times out of 10, but this happened to be that one time out of 10. The Patriots then fell to eventual national champion Florida in the Final Four, losing by 15 in a game that was never particularly competitive.

These Butler Bulldogs are a different story entirely. They entered the tournament at 28-4, playing in the Horizon League — admittedly, roughly comparable to the CAA in terms of quality. Butler won its conference tournament, mauling Wright State by 25 in the final. The Bulldogs started relatively slowly, but haven't lost a game since December 22, when a loss at Alabama-Birmingham dropped them to 8-4. It's worth noting that that loss to UAB was their only loss to a team that didn't qualify for March Madness; the others were to Minnesota, Clemson and Georgetown.

Since then, they have rattled off 24 straight victories. They came into the Big Dance as the 5-seed. They easily defeated 12-seed UTEP, then had a surprisingly tough game against 13-seed Murray State before righting the ship to beat top-seed Syracuse in the regional semifinal, followed by Saturday's seven-point defeat of 2-seed Kansas State. Their next game is against fellow 5-seed Michigan State, who won an instant classic yesterday against Tennessee. I think Butler will beat the Spartans — in which case they'll face off against the Duke-West Virginia winner for the title. That Duke-West Virginia game will be a battle (which I predict West Virginia will win), and the winner of that game should be the favorite in the National Championship game. But the Bulldogs have already proven, by beating Syracuse and Kansas State, that they can play against anybody.

No mid-major has won it all since 1990, when Jerry Tarkanian's UNLV Runnin' Rebels beat Duke by 30 in the title game. Most people who are old enough to remember that don't really think of that Larry Johnson-Anderson Hunt UNLV squad as a mid-major — they were in fact a 1-seed in that tournament — but they did come from the Mountain West. So it's been 20 years since it's happened. Will we see it this year? Probably not, but that's what I'm rooting for.