As expected

I don't have a whole lot of time to write about the Victor Martinez trade, but I will say that once Mark Shapiro decided to trade Cliff Lee, we knew Victor was going too. It wouldn't have made any sense to keep one and not the other of those guys. Shapiro had obviously given up on 2010, and Martinez isn't signed past then. He's obviously trying to stockpile as many young arms as possible. If a few of them pan out, maybe we'll be glad he did it.

The question becomes, what did we get back for Victor? I don't know much about these guys, but quickly:

• Justin Masterson is a 24-year-old right-hander who's pitched pretty well in limited action in the majors, consisting of 15 starts and 52 relief appearances. He's struck out 135 guys and walked 65, in 160 1/3 innings at the major-league level, with a 3.76 ERA over two years in the majors. Those walks are troubling, but he's obviously a bona fide major-leaguer.

• Nick Hagadone, a 23-year-old left-hander who hasn't pitched higher than single-A (and boy howdy, we've added a few of those guys over the past week). He's struck out 77 hitters in 59 professional innings, which is impressive, but he's a long way from the majors.

• Bryan Price, a 22-year-old right-hander who's got a 4.42 career minor-league ERA, in two seasons, with 140 strikeouts against 41 walks. Looks like he's got good stuff. Heck, looks like all these guys have good stuff.

I like this trade a little better than the Lee trade. Time will tell ...

Victor, Cliff on the block?

It's no secret to anyone that the Indians aren't going anywhere this year. Just for the heck of it, I checked coolstandings.com this morning, and they predict a final record of 67-95 and give the Tribe a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs. So that's a one-in-500 shot. Ain't gonna happen.*

So the rumor reported last night on ESPN's Baseball Tonight is that Mark Shapiro is shopping Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez. Both are have club options for 2010. In Lee's case, it's a $9 million option, and in Victor's case, it's a $7 million option. Presuming both are still here and still healthy, there's no doubt the Tribe will pick up those options. The big question is whether Shapiro can sign them past 2010, and the correlary to that question is whether he should.

If Lee is still here in 2010 and has another year like this year (never mind last year), he'll make somewhere around $15 million on the open market. That's not in the Indians' budget for one player. If they did spend that kind of money on him, it would put a serious crimp in their ability to sign other players. I don't see him giving us a hometown discount. So if Shapiro doesn't think we can contend in '10, he should trade him. No, you're not going to get another Cy Young-caliber pitcher for him, but maybe you'll get two or three players with All-Star potential. Of course, if Shapiro hangs on to Lee for another year, and the Indians don't contend next year, he could always trade him then. The return might not be as good, but contending teams are usually willing to pay premium prices for premium talent, even if the player isn't signed past the current year.

Victor's in a different situation. He's a 30-year-old catcher who has begun the transition to first base. It's clear that Kelly Shoppach can't hit enough to be a regular catcher, but the Indians do have some top catching prospects in the high minors (Wyatt Toregas, Carlos Santana). A trade of Martinez will immediately open the door for one of those guys. But regardless, Victor's never going to be able to catch 100 games in a season again. His body will break down. Even if he does stay in Cleveland, he'll probably become a full-time first baseman/designated hitter before long. But Victor is probably more signable for the Indians than Lee is. For one thing, he'll be cheaper, because of the aforementioned, and because he's never accomplished anything as amazing as a Cy Young. For another thing, Victor genuinely seems to want to stay in Cleveland.

My thoughts? I hope Shapiro doesn't trade either one of those guys, and tries to make a serious run at it in 2010. The pieces are pretty much in place; he just needs guys to stay healthy, and he needs to revamp the bullpen. And if things don't go well next year, then trade those guys.

* There are five teams with less chance than the Indians, and the Nationals are the only team at 0.0%. They're expected to finish about 53-109. Now that is a bad team. They also have the distinction of being the only team this year (so far as I know) to send their players out onto the field with the team's name misspelled on the front of their jerseys, as a result of which SportsCenter anchor Neil Everett calls them the "Natinals" every time he talks about them. What a pathetic organization that is. At least we're not them.