The name game

 Last night at 7:14 eastern time, Sebastian Aho of the Islanders scored a goal against the Blue Jackets. At 7:15 eastern time, Sebastian Aho of the Hurricanes scored a goal against the Canadiens. The two gentlemen are not related.

Another season-opening loss

Well, losing to last year's AFC champions in their home stadium isn't the end of the world. But man, this was a winnable game. Jamie Gillan's fumbled snap was a back-breaker, but of course, any time you lose, you can always point to a few key moments that might have made a difference. I don't fault Baker Mayfield for the interception that sealed it. He was in a desperate situation, trying to make something happen.

The Browns lost this game, but they proved that they're going to be a force to be reckoned with this year. They gave up a lot of points to a great offense, but the defense did some good things today. Stopping Mahomes and company on a three-and-out on their last real drive was clutch. It at least gave the offense a chance to come back.

The Browns' offense was on fire in the first half, but they couldn't keep it going in the second half, unfortunately. I would have liked to see them run the ball a little more. They averaged 5.9 yards a rush for the game. Nick Chubb's fumble was obviously very costly, but he did run for 83 yards on just 15 carries. When you've got a horse like Nick Chubb, you've got to ride him.

Oh, well. Like I said, it's not the end of the world. The Browns acquitted themselves well against a very, very good team. I look forward to seeing what happens next week against the Texans.

Some random thoughts

Carl Yastrzemski, whose grandson is now playing in the majors, had an interesting career. He was a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and rightly so. Take a look at his numbers. He was phenomenal in the '60s. Won a Triple Crown, along with two other batting titles, and there's a ton of black ink all over his stats from that era. But Yaz played until he was 43 -- and played REGULARLY until he was 43 -- but had his last really good year at age 30, in 1970. I was born in 1971, and am therefore old enough to remember Yaz's last few years (he retired after the 1983 season). But I never saw CARL YASTRZEMSKI. I saw a decent player by that name, but not the player he once was.

***

MLB hasn't expanded since 1998, with the Rays and Diamondbacks. And both of those teams have won at least one pennant. Of course, the Backs won it all in their fourth year of existence, in a thriller against the Yankees. I don't really have a point, except that it's been a long time since any team has been able to use expansion as a legitimate excuse. Of course, in the NFL, our Browns tried to use that as an excuse after, like, 15 years of existence. Seems like if you've been around longer than most players' careers, you can't say, "Oh, but we're so new."

***

When does the Mayfield Bake-off start?

***

My 7-year-old daughter and my 6-year-old niece just played "rock paper scissors" over whether to fall asleep to "The Grinch" or "Open Season." My niece won the first throw, so of course my daughter had to go best-two-out-of-three. She won the next two throws, and my niece got mad and stormed off. I mean, she did win the first throw and thought she was home free. And she's never seen "Open Season," so she figures it probably sucks, or she'd have seen it. So my daughter caved and turned on "The Grinch." I don't have a point here, I just thought it was funny.

Kevin Love ran off the court at the end of tonight's Cavs game

Well, since my last post, we've seen the Cavaliers win a title and the Indians come ever so close. We've seen the Buckeyes get sent home in tiny bits from the college football playoff. We've seen the Browns come perilously close to putting the "0" and "16" in 2016. We've even seen the Blue Jackets come within one game of tying an NHL record for consecutive wins. (You guys were watching that, right? Because that was pretty cool.) There have also been some politics.

So naturally, the event that sparks me to post something is the tail end of a regular-season Cavs game. It wasn't just any game -- it was a loss to the Spurs on our home court. But really, the framework of what inspires me to post in general these days is fourfold: (1) Something unusual must happen. (2) I must think of something interesting to say about it. (3) It must be something I don't think anybody else noticed. (4) ... And this is the most important one: There must be no small children around asking me for cereal or chocolate milk or toilet paper or shoes or where that one doll is that they're pretty sure they played with a couple of months ago and REALLY, REALLY NEED RIGHT THIS SECOND.

All right, well, as noted, the Cavaliers lost to the Spurs tonight on our home floor. This is nothing to be ashamed of, of course. If we played the Spurs 10 times on our home floor, we'd probably win six or seven. This happened to be one we lost. We probably aren't going to play the Spurs in the postseason, so it's not a major concern. You could make the argument that we should beat everybody on our home court if we expect to be a championship team. Are you saying that? Well, if you are, shut up. No team has ever gone undefeated at home. Not Jordan's Bulls, not Kareem and Magic's Lakers, not even World's Cavs. It was a hard-fought game, and we very nearly won.

The last play of the game involved Kevin Love getting an open look at a 3 that would have tied the game and sent it into a second overtime period. You can't ask for a better play than that in that particular situation. Love is an excellent shooter, especially for a big man, and when his hands hit the ball, there were three-tenths of a second left. Three-tenths, of course, is considered the minimum number of seconds required for a player to catch the ball and shoot it. Any less than that, and it's got to be a tip-in. Which is pretty difficult to get three points on.

Love missed. Hey, it happens. Even the best shooters miss more than half of their three-pointers. The thing that surprised me the most? Love missed and then IMMEDIATELY ran off the floor and into the locker room. I found that rather stunning. He practically sprinted away from the court. LeBron James and Kyrie Irving both went over to congratulate Greg Poppovich (I'm not sure I have the correct number of G's and/or P's, but I'm not going to look it up right now; shut up). Poppovich and/or Popovich and/or Ppppoppppovich was mad at his team for leaving Love open for a 3 in that situation, but that's totally irrelevant. I'm digressing all over the place.

Where was Love going? (I'm going to resist the urge to make a Supremes joke right now (The Supremes sang "Where Did Our Love Go?")) Why was he in such a hurry to get into the locker room? How badly did he have to go to the locker room? Did he have to go stand next to something or sit on it? Or perhaps kneel next to it? Was that something made of porcelain? Was the porcelain imported? Was it Italian? Why are the Cavs importing porcelain from Italy? What's wrong with American porcelain?

That's all. I found that funny. And I got 678 words out of it. Including this one.

Of David Blatt

So the Cavaliers fired David Blatt today. Blatt is the winningest coach in Cavaliers history, based on winning percentage. (On a side note, "winningest" does not pass the spell checker. I find it interesting that Google classifies "winningest" as a non-word, but you see it in sports stories all the time. Sportswriters are always making up new words. I think I've gone quite far enough on this tangent.)

As my good friend Jeff Brown noted in a text, "David Blatt goes 83-40 (.675) in 1.5 seasons with the Cavs, and in his only opportunity took the team to within two wins of the NBA championship, and he just got fired. Blatt has the highest winning percentage (I already covered that, so instead of typing it again, I'm going to type far more words explaining why I'm not typing it again. You know, to save time and irritation on my carpal tunnel. I'm going to purposely end this paragraph with a punctuationally incorrect drop-off. And yes, you're right, "punctuationally" is not a word, according to Google.)

Jeff continues, "What more do they want from a coach?"

Well ... Does anybody think the Cavaliers can beat the Warriors OR the Spurs the way they're currently going? They were utterly embarrassed by the Warriors just four days ago. Destroyed. Turned into quivering lumps of protoplasm. Sure, they're 30-11. Yes, they are the best team in the East. As long as LeBron stays healthy, we're pretty much going to get a bye to the Finals. ... I know, I shouldn't say that, you never know, everybody starts at 0-0 in a playoff series, but who's going to stop us? The Chicago Fools? The Atlanta Caulks? The Toronto Crappers? Well ... yeah, you never know. Those teams aren't going to just lay down for us. But we're easily the odds-on favorite. We have the most expensive team in NBA history, and just look at how much talent we've got on our roster. (You all know who we've got, so I'm not going to belabor the point.)

But, provided we make the Finals, the West is going to produce a very, very good team for us to play. Probably the Golden State Warmers or the San Antonio Spuds. (I like my names way better than the ones they're using. They should have called me.) And the way the Cavs have been playing, I really don't feel we could beat either of those teams. We've played them both tough on their home floors, but ... yeah, Monday. It was the worst home loss of LeBron's career. And he's, what, 42? Really, can you imagine those Cavaliers beating those Warriors in a seven-game series? I just don't see it. (In another side note, I find it interesting that, with Steve Kerr taking back his rightful spot on the Warriors' bench tonight, both teams from last year's Finals changed coaches on the same day. (I know I'm overusing the parentheses, and I should just do footnotes, but I'm too lazy for footnotes. And anyway, what is this, Encylopædia Brittanica?))

I do feel that David Blatt mismanaged the Finals last year. He ran his starters ragged, and left very good players rotting on the bench. You all know the story, so I'm not going to belabor that either. But it isn't particularly germane to this discussion anyway, because obviously he wasn't fired for that. He'd have been fired right after the Finals if that were the reason. I've heard that he had "lost the players," which is a very common thing to hear when a coach is fired in any sport. (Or a manager. I know.) I've never been a professional athlete, but I've had bosses who had lost the workforce, and it's not a good place to be.

Here's the thing: David Griffin put this team together. He knows the situation much better than I do, and he's probably smarter than I am too. And I don't say that about very many people. That doesn't mean he's incapable of a mistake (he's not the freaking Pope, after all), but I just don't feel I have enough information to disagree with him.

Also, one other point -- Tyronn Lue has gotten glowing reviews from a lot of different people who know him and have played with him or played for him. Griffin made it clear that he has a lot of confidence in Lue. Blatt may not have been fired if Griffin didn't feel he had a very capable replacement for him.

I don't know if this was a good move. It certainly surprised me. But I can definitely see a lot of the reasoning that went into it, and I'm looking forward to seeing how the team responds.

Quick thought on the Browns ...

Yes, that was an extremely satisfying win by the Browns over the Ravens yesterday. I was against McCown being reinserted as the starter after Manziel won his only start, but I will cheerfully admit I was wrong about that. He was phenomenal yesterday. He is now the only Browns quarterback in history with three consecutive 300-yard games, and yesterday he set a new club record for passing yards in a regular-season game. (Nobody seems to be mentioning that Bernie Kosar actually threw for 483 yards in that double-overtime win over the Jets in the 1986-87 playoffs. I wish I had a VHS tape of that game. And also a VHS.)

In any case, I haven't heard anybody mention this, but if the NFL hadn't introduced the two-point conversion as an option 21 years ago, the Ravens would probably have won yesterday. The Browns went one-for-two on two-pointers yesterday, so if they'd just kicked extra points, they'd still have finished with 30 points. The Ravens only attempted one two-point conversion, and failed. At the time, it certainly appeared to be the right play -- they were up five with 5:56 to play, and it made sense to try to make it a seven-point game instead of six. But the conversion failed. Had they just kicked an extra point and everything else had gone the way it did, the Ravens would have taken a 31-30 lead on that field goal with 25 seconds left.

And this, my friends, is why I love the two-point conversion so much.

I'm a bit tardy with this post, but ...

On Thursday, my good friend Jeff Brown treated me to a front-row seat at the Browns' preseason game against Buffalo. Well, a business acquaintance of his gave him his season tickets. So I guess technically, that guy treated both of us to the game. In any case, Jeff was kind enough to invite me along. I never realized regular people such as we could ever wind up in the front row, even for a preseason game, but of course, you always see people sitting there when you watch the games on TV, and whether those people are bajillionaires or not, they still have red blood just like you and me, and their pants-donning method is identical (or at least highly similar) to yours and mine.

In any case, I took this picture with my phone before the game:



That was taken from the actual seat I was actually sitting in for the actual game. Sure, it was just a preseason game, but still, that was pretty awesome. That blue thing in the lower left-hand corner of the photo is the instant replay machine. Had there been a replay review, it would have taken place directly in front of my seat. Sadly, there were none.

I used to work at The News-Herald in Willoughby, first as a member of the copy desk, and then as an assistant city editor. I left there in 2007, but the newsroom staff has changed very little in that time, and I spotted former colleague Michael Blair, the N-H photographer, on the sideline. I was so close to the field, I yelled out his name at a not-particularly high volume, and he immediately turned around and saw me, waved and snapped my picture, presumably to show his co-workers who he saw at the game.

Here's a selfie Jeff took:




The row behind us did eventually fill up, in case you're wondering. Those people were just a little late.

As for the game? Well, of course it's just preseason, but it seems to me Manziel played a little better than McCown, albeit against the second-string defense. But that's about the extent of my analysis at this time. I unfortunately don't really have enough time to go into any depth.

On Corey Kluber

Anybody who thinks Corey Kluber isn't the pitcher he was last year should have watched tonight's game against the Twins. The dude pitched a complete-game one-hitter on just 98 pitches, striking out seven. The one hit was a home run, so no shutout, but yeesh, that dude is really something. I would even go so far as to say I think he's the best Indians pitcher I've had the pleasure to watch. And he didn't even make the All-Star Game this year. Tut, tut.

In case you're wondering, the best Indians hitter I've seen in my 44 years on this planet was, without question, Manny Ramirez. No, he wasn't the best all-around player, but he was the best pure hitter.

But speaking of offense, the Tribe entered tonight's game having scored 461 runs in 114 games. That includes their recent offensive explosion, upon which I'm about to expand, but in any case, that's an average of 4.04 runs per game on the season. They've routinely had runners on base and been unable to score any of them; every Tribe fan knows all about that. But here's the Indians' runs scored over the last seven games: 9, 17, 8, 5, 2, 6, 6. That's an average of 7.57 runs per game. Obviously that 17-run outburst against the Twins a few days ago is an extreme aberration and skews that number upwards; nonetheless, the Indians have scored at least six runs in five of their last seven games.

That'll play, folks. That'll play.

And one other thing. There's a good deal of rambling in this post, and I've decided that's probably my new style. I hope you "enjoy" it.

(Putting "enjoy" in quotes is a reference to George Harrison and Monty Python. Google it if you don't believe me.)

ADDENDUM: My cursory Googling indicates Google doesn't help with that particular episode. Sorry to have misled you. But I'm not going to tell you the backstory, because I don't remember enough details even to fake it.

Indians' dominance?

As long as I'm posting to this blog, I might as well share with you an email exchange I just had with my friend Jeff Brown. (I'm pretty sure Jeff won't mind.) I emailed him this morning under the heading "Indians are actually the best team in the AL Central."

Me: Check this out:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

According to this page, the Indians have actually played like the best team in the American League Central this year. They've just been deeply unfortunate. According to what the nice folks at Baseball Prospectus call "3rd Order Winning Percentage," no team in the division has had better underlying statistics than our Tribe. Bad luck has shortchanged them out of 11 wins this season (rounding off).

It's apparently some sort of proprietary formula, but this is how BP defines the stat:

3rd Order Winning Percentage: A team's projected winning percentage, based on underlying statistics and adjusted for quality of opponents.

Of course, none of this helps them in the standings. But still, I thought it was interesting.


Jeff:  This is fascinating stuff!

It looks like the Indians get the second-highest adjusted win total (10.6 more wins) in MLB... second only to the Oakland Billy Beane's with 11.7.

Oakland would be 63-52 if third order winning percentage was the law, instead of their actual record of 51-64.

I guess it kind of makes sense for the Tribe, which has gotten numerous stellar pitching performances but lost the game because they couldn't hit the damned ball!

On the other side of the coin, it appears that the Minnesota Twins are actually much worse than their record of 57-56 shows.  Their third order winning percentage would place them at 48-65 with their league-leading 9.4 adjustment downward.

Of course, this is just one way of looking at things and although very interesting, it doesn't meet the eye test because it indicates that the Indians ought to be 64-48 and the Royals ought to be three games back at 61-51, and everyone in the Milky Way Galaxy knows that the Royals are a better team this year than the Tribe.

What do you think?

Me: Oh, come on. There are lots of folks on Rigel 7 who have no idea how good the Royals are.

But seriously, are the Royals truly better? Based on end results, it would appear so, and that's really all that matters. But the fact that it seems obvious that the Royals are better, doesn't make it so. It used to be obvious to everyone that swinging too hard was a bad strategy, that you might hit a few balls out of the park but that would be more than offset by the number of fly balls that would find their way into outfielders' gloves. Then Babe Ruth came along. ... It used to be obvious to everyone that a walk was purely the pitcher's fault, that the hitter basically just got lucky. Then Bill James came along. ... It used to be obvious to everyone that we were all better off if black and white people were kept separate from each other. Then Martin Luther King Jr. came along. ... So what I'm saying is, if you think the Royals are better than the Indians, you're a racist.

Just kidding. The Royals may truly be a better overall team than the Indians, but this chart throws that belief into question, at least for me.

* * *

Jeff hasn't replied to that yet, and I'm assuming that's because he sees my point and agrees with me.

Incidentally, I have since researched the star Rigel, which it turns out is part of the Orion constellation, and there is no evidence it has any planets, much less inhabited ones. But Rigel 7 (or Rigel VII) has often been the setting of much alien-related fiction, as you can discover more information about here.

First post in four years

OK, so I haven't exactly been active on this forum, but I'm watching the Browns-Redskins preseason game, and I have one thought: I don't like this longer extra point business. What if you want to run a fake and go for two after all?

That's all for now. I may decide to start posting regularly again. I don't write for a living anymore, so maybe I ought to get back into this. Baby steps. And this is about the babiest step I can think of.

OK, Fukudome ...

I've been mulling this over all day. Do I like the trade for Kosuke Fukudome? Initially, I didn't like it at all. Here's a 34-year-old outfielder who may only be needed for a couple of weeks, before Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo come back. Sure, he's a slight upgrade over the likes of Austin Kearns and Jason Buck, and it reduces the likelihood that we'll ever again see the disaster that was Luis Valbuena in left field, but was he worth the two prospects we gave up for him?

But the more I think about it, the more I think this was not such a bad idea. Fukudome is hitting .273 with not much power this year, but he does at least draw a lot of walks. And the first step to scoring runs is getting on base. The Indians are on the hook for less than $1 million of his contract, so it's not like this is going to make it hard to get another deal done. And let's face it, a contending team doesn't come easy in Cleveland these days. We've got one right now. The Indians are only 52-50, but that's good enough for second place. If a guy like Fukudome can help us hang in there until we get some more healthy bodies back, we should probably take that opportunity.

And the prospects we gave up, Carlton Smith and Abner Abreu, are really nothing special. Smith is 25 and has a 4.50 ERA out of the bullpen in Columbus this year. He'll probably reach the majors soon, but he's not going to become a Chris Perez or anything. Abreu is only 21 and has some tools, from what I've heard, but is hitting just .244 in A-ball this year. He might turn into a legitimate player, but I wouldn't put any money on it.

So yeah, I like this trade. It doesn't knock my socks off, but hey, there's still about 50 hours left before the trade deadline. Maybe Chris Antonelli can pull off something bigger yet.

Welcome to the bigs, Jason Kipnis

If Vinnie Pestano hadn't given up a two-run homer to Bobby Abreu in the eighth inning yesterday, the Indians would have won 1-0, there would have been no bottom of the ninth, and Jason Kipnis would still be looking for his first major-league hit. Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't complain about a 1-0 win, but Kipnis winning the game with a single to right was quite a thrilling moment. I wasn't able to cheer because my wife and I were trying to put my 17-month-old daughter to sleep, but I cheered inwardly.

Now that Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall are both up in the majors to play every day instead of Orlando Cabrera and Jack Hannahan, respectively, the Indians truly have their best possible team on the field (considering injury). They are a game behind Detroit, and there's certainly no guarantee they can overtake the Tigers regardless of who's out there, but Hannahan and O-Cab haven't been doing feces offensively, and the offense has been struggling like crazy. Chisenhall may not be Hannahan's equal with the glove, but he'll surely more than make up for it with his bat, and the same is likely true for Kipnis.

Asdrubal's all-star appearance

The Indians' Asdrubal Cabrera will be the second batter in tonight's All-Star Game in Phoenix, and will start the game at shortstop. It's a well-deserved honor for Cabrera, who is hitting .293 with 14 home runs and 51 RBIs, which are pretty gaudy first-half numbers for a shortstop even in today's day and age. And he turns in an eye-popping defensive play about every two or three games.

Cabrera replaces the Yankees' Derek Jeter, who was elected to start despite having a clearly inferior first half to Cabrera's (.270, 3, 24), but has bowed out of the game, citing fatigue. I'm not sure quite what to make of that, but Jeter is 37 and recently came off the disabled list, and the Yankees clearly need him more than the American League does. (The American League basically doesn't need him at all. They've got Asdrubal.)

Without looking it up, can you guess how long it's been since an Indian started the All-Star Game? Oh, it used to happen all the time, back when the Indians were selling out every single home game and all those fans were punching all-star ballots at the park. But it's now been 10 years since Juan Gonzalez was the last Tribesman voted to start the game. And Cabrera's the first Indian to start at shortstop since Lou Boudreau back in 1954.

None of this amounts to much, in the grand scheme of things, but as you're watching tonight's game, just remember that the winner gets home field in the World Series, and for the first time in four years, there's a chance the Indians will be the AL's representative.

Chisenhall gives reason for excitement

When a team is having a devil of a time scoring runs, as the Indians have lately (they just got swept by the Giants in a series in which their pitchers gave up less than three earned runs per game), and that team is in contention for a playoff spot, as the Indians are, it's time to start looking for other options. One of the chief offenders in the Tribe's lineup has been third baseman Jack Hannahan, who got off to a decent start at the plate but has been ice-cold since then. Hannahan's numbers: .214 batting, .304 on-base, .333 slugging. He's played strong defense all year, but you can't carry a bat like that in your lineup no matter what he's doing with the glove.

Enter Lonnie Chisenhall. There was talk of Chisenhall making the team out of spring training, but the front office decided to give him some more time in Columbus to develop. And his numbers with the Clippers have been decent, but nothing to sing about: .265/.352/.427. But even if you adjust those numbers for major-league-caliber pitching, it's going to be better than Hannahan. And he's been super-hot lately. In his last four games before being called up yesterday, Chisenhall went 7-for-17 with two home runs, a triple, and 13 RBIs. In Hannahan's last four games, he'd gone 1-for-14 with that one hit being a single. So why not give Chisenhall a try?

He's now played in exactly one major-league game, last night's 5-4 victory over Arizona, but the Indians probably would not have won that game without Chisenhall. He had two hits, an RBI single and a double. Maybe he'll provide an instant jolt to the offense. He's only 22 years old, so I think we can logically assume the best is yet to come. Whether he helps much this year or not, the kid's future looks pretty bright.

What's up with Fausto?

I've decided to try to make at least a quick post every day or two, rather than let the blog accumulate tumbleweeds for a couple of weeks. Today's topic is Fausto Carmona, who once finished in the top five in the Cy Young voting but has been just flat-out terrible this year.

Yesterday, Fausto appeared to have righted himself at least temporarily. He gave up a run on three hits in the first inning, then faced the minimum in the second and third innings, and got the first two hitters of the fourth. What happened to him then, I have no idea. By the time Manny Acta went out to get Fausto, he had allowed seven straight baserunners, and the Rockies had scored six runs, capped by Jason Giambi's three-run homer.

It was the fourth time Fausto has allowed at least seven runs in a start this year. Can you guess how many major league pitchers have done that four times in 2011? If you guessed one, you're right. Fausto is it.

Fausto now stands at 4-9, with his ERA at a positively hideous 6.17. He hasn't allowed fewer than four runs in any of his last eight starts, during which stretch his ERA is 8.87. I suspect there's something wrong with Fausto, and it's not a problem with his arm. I'm guessing he's lost his confidence. He'd better get it back if he wants to stay in the rotation. For all their recent struggles, the Indians are still contenders, and they can't afford to keep sending someone out there who can't do any better than that.

Indians struggling, but don't panic

The Indians won last night. That's the good news. Carlos Carrasco and three relievers (particularly Chris Perez) handcuffed a strong Yankees lineup, shutting them out. But of course, the Tribe is still just 5-14 since starting the season 30-15. And it was just their second victory in the last 11 games, and both of those were 1-0 games started by Carrasco. Obviously, Carrasco's recent performance is highly encouraging. The fact that the Indians suddenly can't seem to score any runs, on the other hand, is highly discouraging. They've scored just 22 runs in those 11 games, being shut out three times over that stretch.

But does this mean the Indians are a truly terrible team that somehow managed to get off to a hot start? That seems unlikely. They played like the best team in baseball for a month and a half. When a team plays like the best team in baseball for a week or two, it's often a fluke. But a month and a half?

As we all know, the Tigers have managed to virtually tie the Tribe for first place thanks to this cold snap. And that's who we're playing in a three-game series that starts tonight in Detroit. A mid-June series is never crucial, but this is about as important a series as there can be at this point in the season. If the Indians go in and win this series, it could turn their season around, at least temporarily. But if they leave Detroit in second place, they could continue sliding until they fall into third place or worse.

On the other hand, it's only three games. They could go get swept by the Tigers and then win 12 in a row. This is baseball. You just never know.

Still, it sure would be nice to win two or three games up there this week.

Another reason to root against the Heat

Kudos to the Dallas Mavericks for their stirring comeback last night in the NBA Finals! I didn't watch it, since I really have no desire to see LeBron James play in an NBA Finals, but I understand it was really something to behold.

I received this email today from my friend Jeff Brown, who messages me every couple of days, and whose emails are usually relentlessly negative about the Indians or Cavaliers or Cleveland's population or what have you. This one is a bit unusual in its topic, and I found it interesting enough to paste it in its entirety:

I figured out why (Zydrunas Ilgauskas) hasn't been playing the NBA finals so far -- the Heat didn't even include him on the finals roster!

This isn't a very noble way for the big fella to end his NBA career -- his team, despite starting him for 51 games in the regular season, and 8 out of 9 games to begin the postseason, has eviscerated him from the roster altogether and he doesn't even get to wear his uniform to the game, much less get in and play.

This would have been Z's second trip to the NBA finals, and a chance for him to earn some redemption for losing in four straight to the Spurs a few years ago.

Now, even when he wins his ring, it will be a hollow victory because he's sitting on the sideline wearing a suit and tie, rather than a basketball uniform.

Doesn't Z deserve better, Steve?

Well, I would stop short of saying he "deserves" better. But it does seem a bit odd that the Heat would play Z all year and then leave him off the Finals roster. He also didn't play in the Eastern Conference Finals. Maybe fallen out of favor with Heat coach Erik Spoelstra for some reason. Regardless, Z would be the only reason I'd ever want the Heat to win a title. Now that he's not even on the roster, ... yeah, I hope they get creamed the rest of the way.

Quick thoughts

* The Indians had a bit of a rough stretch there, but they've won two in a row to regain the best record in the majors. A certain Of Fair Hooker reader who has been constantly beating the drum of negativity about the Indians (who goes by the name of Jeff Brown) emailed me the other day to opine that the Tribe will soon go the way of the Royals, who are now 5-13 since starting the season 20-17. First of all, the Indians' record is a lot better than 20-17, and second of all, they're pretty obviously better than the Royals. The Indians are now on pace to win 101 games. I don't think they'll actually win that many, but it probably won't take 90 to win the Central. I will be surprised if Detroit overtakes us, and shocked if Chicago does. Kansas City and Minnesota are all but eliminated right now.

* Jim Tressel has left the Ohio State football program in disgrace after committing the unpardonable sin of allowing his players to participate in capitalism. ... Don't get me wrong, Tressel should have known better, and signs are starting to point to the fact that this has been going on for years right under his nose, and he has been running a pretty corrupt program (at least in terms of the NCAA rules). But at least he won a national title. That's better than cheating and NOT winning a national title.

* Shaquille O'Neal, who spent the 2009-10 season in Cleveland, has announced his retirement. Shaq was at one time the NBA's most dominant player, and has to go down in history as one of the five best centers ever. And he's one heck of a character. Here's what he said about coming to Cleveland: "I came here with the perfect chemist's perception. The formula they had was perfect and any added ingredient could make it go bad or worse." ... Well, obviously the added ingredient that made it go bad wasn't Shaq, it was LeBron James losing his desire to win in Cleveland. Odd that he seems to have found it again in Miami. But that's a separate issue.

* I really don't want the Heat to win the championship. That's a given. If you're reading this, you probably don't either. But you know what? If Miami sweeps the Mavericks and hoists the trophy the evening of June 7, the sun will still rise on June 8. Not only that, the Cavaliers will still exist, and will still have the first and fourth picks in the upcoming NBA draft. They'll be one of 29 teams trying to knock off the champion. Whether that's the Mavericks or the Heat is not especially material.

Asdrubal turns in a wower

This is kind of a side story, especially because the Indians lost last night and Fausto Carmona can't seem to get any White Sox out to save his life, but did you see that freaking play Asdrubal Cabrera made last night? If you saw it, you know what play I'm talking about. Our old friend Omar Vizquel hit a line drive up the middle that Indians reliever Joe Smith managed to get a glove on, but only enough to deflect it a little. Cabrera, who was heading toward the middle from his shortstop position to try to make a play on the ball, had to change course and go back toward third. He got it with his bare hand, then looked toward Adam Everett covering second, and flipped it behind his back from about 15 feet away to start one of the most spectacular double plays I've ever seen.

It was the obvious choice for top play of the day on SportsCenter, right? Nope. They chose a Kevin Durant dunk, and put Cabrera's play No. 2. No disrespect to Durant; it was a fine dunk with a hand in his face. But come on.

If you want to watch Cabrera's play, click here. But you'll see it again. It might be the play of the year in the major leagues.

So how good are these Indians really?

The Indians have reached the season's quarter pole, and if you had them winning nearly two-thirds of their games in the first quarter of the season, you could have won a lot of money in Vegas. At 26-14, the Tribe has a five-game lead on Detroit in the AL Central, a 2 1/2-game lead on Tampa Bay for the American League's best record, and a one-game lead on Philadelphia for the best record in the bigs.

So what do the Internet experts think? There are three lists I check regularly. The most recent edition of ESPN's power rankings has the Tribe second, behind the Phillies. This despite Philadelphia's inferior record in the inferior league; this is presumably because of the Phillies' vaunted four-ace pitching rotation. Objectively, it's hard to think the Tribe can compete with a team that has Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels each starting every five days. But the results are what they are, and our boys have done better so far. ... I would also like to mention that the same poll had the Indians dead last in the first poll of the season. That's how surprising their fast start is.

There are two sites that use computer simulations to predict how the rest of the season will go. There's coolstandings, which predicts the Indians will finish 102-60, and gives them an 85.4% chance to make the playoffs, with a simulation that uses a fairly blunt instrument, team runs scored and team runs allowed so far. (The Indians excel in both categories, outscoring their opponents 207 to 145.) And then there's the Baseball Prospectus odds page, whose simulation is based on predictions about how individual players can be expected to perform the rest of the season. They've got the Indians finishing 83-79, with about a 32.5% chance of reaching the postseason. Amazing how two sophisticated computer simulations can have such wide differences.

Where does the truth lie? I suspect it's somewhere in between. I'd say a 90-win season is pretty realistic. That would only require the Indians to play slightly over .500 the rest of the way. At this point, I wouldn't be all that surprised to see them win about 95 games, which would almost certainly be good enough to keep them playing in October. I'm not going to lie, I'm excited.